Background Material - Security Policy
The Military Cost of Securing Energy
By: Anita Dancs, Mary Orisich and Suzanne Smith
National Priorities Project
October 2008
According to the report, the United States is spending between $97 and $215 billion dollars annually on military action to defend access to oil and natural gas reserves around the globe. It provides a critical analysis of the military cost of defending U.S. energy concerns overseas. The report estimates that the military spends up to 30 percent of its annual budget to secure access to energy resources internationally.
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World in Transition – Climate Change as a Security Risk
WBGU–Report on Climate and Security
By: German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)
2007
With „World in Transition – Climate Change as a Security Risk“, WBGU has compiled a flagship report on an issue that quite rightly is rising rapidly up the international political agenda. The authors pull no punches on the likelihood of increasing tensions and conflicts in a climatically constrained world and spotlight places where possible conflicts may flare up in the 21st century unless climate change is checked. The report makes it clear that climate policy is preventative security policy.
Full Text Report [pdf, 19.1 MB]
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Security Council Holds First-Ever Debate on Impact of Climate Change on Peace and Security
UN Security Council - SC/9000, 17 April 2007
With scientists predicting that land and water resources will gradually become more scarce in the coming years, and that global warming may irreversibly alter the face of the planet, the United Nations Security Council today held its first-ever debate on the impact of climate change on security, as some delegates raised doubts over whether the Council was the proper forum to discuss the issue.
The day-long meeting, called by the United Kingdom, aimed to examine the relationship between energy, security and climate, and featured interventions from more than 50 delegations, representing imperilled island nations and industrialized greenhouse gas emitters alike. While some speakers praised the initiative, there were reservations from developing countries, which saw climate change as a socio-economic development issue to be dealt with by the more widely representative General Assembly. Many delegations also called for the United Nations to urgently consider convening a global summit on the issue.
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UK Background Paper
Background Paper for the UN Security Council - SC/9000, 17 April 2007
On 5 April 2007, the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland submitted to the United Nations Security Council a concept
paper for open debate on "Energy, Security and Climate". The paper
stresses:
* Major changes to world's physical landmass during this century that may
lead to border & maritime disputes
* Submergence of entire small island states and dramatically receding coastlines
* Possible displacement of 200.000.000 people by 2050 as large parts of
the world become uninhabitable because of rising sea levels
* Possible conflicts over energy resources & security of supply
* Potential role of energy resources once conflict broke out
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Paper [pdf, 38 KB]
The ensuing debate in the UN Security Council is documented at:
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2007/sc9000.doc.htm
Toward a New Energy Realpolitik - The Future of Global Energy Governance is a Key Security Issue
By: Sascha Müller-Kraenner
2007
Today’s political leaders face the intertwined challenges of energy security, climate change, and nuclear proliferation. Yet traditional conceptions of energy security—like geopolitical deals with energy suppliers—still dominate the debate. We need a modern vision of the world’s energy future that would include a global energy governance structure to address energy market imbalances and the phasing out of nuclear power.
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The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change
By: Kurt M. Campbell, John Podesta, Julianne Smith (Center for Strategic & International Studies CSIS)
Nov 2007
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The Transatlantic Climate Change Challenge
By: Julianne Smith and Derek Mix
Europe is often portrayed as the global leader that has placed its faith in national and international regulation. By contrast, the United States has assumed the image of the global laggard unwilling to make sacrifices and much more interested in supporting technological solutions than regulatory ones. Although elements of these stereotypes ring true, the transatlantic landscape on this issue is changing, with an increasing recognition on both sides of the Atlantic that cooperation in this area is possible and critical. The question is, can it come together quickly enough to help forge a framework to replace the Kyoto Protocol before the agreement expires in 2012?
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A Climate of Conflict: The Links Between Climate Change, Peace and War
By: Smith, Dan; Vivekananda, Janani (International Alert)
Nov 2007
The findings for this report are taken from the Fourth Assessment Review of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. The report looks at the social and human consequences of climate change since many of the world’s poorest countries face a double-headed problem of climate change and violent conflict. This report includes twelve recommendations for states and communities to handle climate change and conflict."
International Alert is an independent peacebuilding organisation that has worked for over 20 years to lay the foundations for lasting peace and security in communities affected by violent conflict.
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International Interests and Tensions
By: SWP (German Institute for International and Security Affairs), Enno Harks
2006
World energy demand is projected to increase heavily over the coming decades and as the import dependence of consuming nations increases, international competition for dwindling resources will gather pace.
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An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security
By: Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
October 2003
„The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable—to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security.
We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support this project, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First, they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather than globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller.
We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately."
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PFC Energy 50
By: PFC Energy
Jan 2007
The PFC Energy 50 ranks the top 50 publicly traded companies in the oil and gas industry based on year-end market capitalization. The PFC Energy 50 includes companies from 18 countries, led by the US (14), EU (13), Canada (7) and Russia (5). Integrated (25) and E&P (12) companies account for 37 of the top 50. Joining the PFC 50 in 2006: Rosneft, Reliance, Cepsa, Novatek and Gas Natural. Departing this year's list (rank in 2005): Burlington (#21- acquired by ConocoPhillips), EOG Resources (#41), Formosa (#45), Transneft (#49) and Indian Oil (#50).
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How Secure Are Middle East Oil Supplies?
By: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Sep 2007
In light of the Middle East's record as a reliable supplier, a simple return to the old theme that consuming countries should reduce dependency on Middle East oil may prove unrealistic, costly and counter productive. The authors argue that a more useful approach is to assess under which circumstances the region would cease to act (willing or unwillingly) as a reliable supplier, what are the chances of these events occurring, and in case of a disruption, how big the impact is likely to be on oil supplies and productive capacity. This approach would help refocus the debate regarding Middle East supplies by reconsidering certain concerns that seem to shape energy security policies. On the other hand, one can identify some factors that may have a long lasting impact on energy security but which do not receive the appropriate attention.
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The Myth of the Iranian Oil Weapon
By: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Aug 2007
Although Iran has many tools for deterrence or retaliation at its disposal, contrary to what many analysts believe, the oil weapon is not one of them. There are serious costs and risks associated with the use of the oil weapon. It is not always effective; it is indiscriminate; and it cannot be sustained for a long period of time. It is certainly not one of Iran’s strongest tools with which to confront the US.
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