Papers Seminar 3
Session 2: Climate Change and Security: A New Threat Landscape
Session 3: Energy and Security: New Risks, New Tensions
Session 4: Is Peaceful Risk Management Possible? Options for Multilateral Regulation
Dinner – What Role for International Institutions in Confronting Security Threats Arising out of Climate Change and Competition for Scarce Energy Resources?
Papers Session 2: Climate Change and Security: A New Threat Landscape
World in Transition – Climate Change as a Security Risk
WBGU-Report on Climate and Security
By: German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)
2007
With „World in Transition – Climate Change as a Security Risk“, WBGU has compiled a flagship report on an issue that quite rightly is rising rapidly up the international political agenda. The authors pull no punches on the likelihood of increasing tensions and conflicts in a climatically constrained world and spotlight places where possible conflicts may flare up in the 21st century unless climate change is checked. The report makes it clear that climate policy is preventative security policy.
Full Text Report [pdf, 19.1 MB]
All documents
Climate Change and International Security
Paper from the High Representative and the European Commission to the European Council
March 3, 2008
A discussion paper on the subject of "Climate change and international security" presented to the EU Council of Environment Ministers by Javier Solana, foreign policy chief of the EU. The paper views climate change as a threat multiplier which exacerbates existing trends, tensions and instability worldwide. Climate change is regarded as a key element of international relations with a strong security component. The paper argues that if recognised, addressing climate change can become a positive driver for improving and reforming global governance.
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The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change
By: Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS)
Nov 2007
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A Climate of Conflict: The Links Between Climate Change, Peace and War
By: Smith, Dan; Vivekananda, Janani (International Alert)
Nov 2007
The findings for this report are taken from the Fourth Assessment Review of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. The report looks at the social and human consequences of climate change since many of the world’s poorest countries face a double-headed problem of climate change and violent conflict. This report includes twelve recommendations for states and communities to handle climate change and conflict."
International Alert is an independent peace-building organisation that has worked for over 20 years to lay the foundations for lasting peace and security in communities affected by violent conflict.
Download Paper [pdf, 1.97 MB]
Global Warning: The Security Challenges of Climate Change
A Chapter from "The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change"
By: John Podesta, Peter Ogden (Centre for American Progress)
Nov 2007
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An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security
By: Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
October 2003
„The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable—to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security.
We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support this project, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First, they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather than globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller.
We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately."
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CNA Report on US National Security and the Threat of Climate Change
By: CNA Corporation
Apr 2007
Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America's national security. It acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world and will add to tensions even in stable parts of the world. Climate change, national security, and energy dependency are related. Climate change should be fully integrated into [security & defense] strategies. The US should help stabilize warming to avoid global in security & instability and help developing nations build capacity & resilience to manage impacts. The US military should improve combat power through energy efficiency. It also should prepare for rising seal levels, extreme weather, & other impacts.
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Papers Session 3: Energy and Security: New Risks, New Tensions
World Energy Overview: 1995-2005
By: Energy Information Agency
Oct 2007
The International Energy Annual presents information and trends on world energy production and consumption for petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity. Production and consumption data are reported in standard United States physical units as well as British thermal units (Btu). Reserve estimates are shown for petroleum, natural gas, and coal and trade data are provided for these three fuels and for electricity. Data are provided on crude oil refining capacity and electricity installed capacity by type. Also available are estimates of carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption and flaring of fossil fuels. Prices are included for selected crude oils. Population data are also provided.
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The New Energy Security - 2005 Global Oil and Gas Forum
By: Aspen Institute
2005
The Program on Energy, the Environment, and the Economy has released “The New Energy Security”, the report of its first annual Global Oil and Gas Forum. Experts discussed recent increases in oil and gas prices, global competition for reserves, debates about whether oil production will peak soon, growth in demand in China and India, prospects for increased production in Saudi Arabia and Russia, US reliance on LNG imports to meet gas demand growth, and the links between globalized energy markets and perceptions of national security.
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Energy Markets & Global Politics
By: Aspen Institute
2006
Growing energy demand, competition for scarce oil and gas supplies, instability in some producing regions, and the increasing threat of the use of energy as a political weapon have focused the world’s attention on energy markets and geopolitics. In its second annual Global Forum on Energy, Economy and Security, the Program on Energy and Environment convened a group of energy industry leaders and policy experts who concluded that complacency and business-as-usual policies could lead to even higher prices and less secure markets.
Part 1:
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Part 2:
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International Interests and Tensions
By: German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Enno Harks
2006
World energy demand is projected to increase heavily over the coming decades and as the import dependence of consuming nations increases, international competition for dwindling resources will gather pace.
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The Climate for Terror
By: Alexander T. J. Lennon and Julianne Smith
Dec 2007
Climate scientists tend to think in decades; national security experts in days or years at best. This difference helps explain why climate change is rarely considered a national security challenge. Yet the links are inescapable. One that is even less frequently discussed is the connection of global change to the threat of terrorism.
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Nuclear Power in a Warming World
By: Lisbeth Gronlund, David Lochbaum (Union of Concerned Scientists)
Dec 2007
Global warming demands a profound transformation in the ways we generate and use energy. Because nuclear power results in few global warming emissions, an increased number of nuclear power plants could help reduce global warming — but could also increase the threats nuclear power poses to our safety and security. This report assesses these risks and proposes concrete ways to minimize them.
Lisbeth Gronlund is co-director and senior scientist of the UCS Global Security Program. David Lochbaum is director of the nuclear safety project in the UCS Global Security Program. Edwin Lyman is a senior staff scientist in the UCS Global Security Program.
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How Secure are Middle East Oil Supplies?
By: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Sep 2007
In light of the Middle East's record as a reliable supplier, a simple return to the old theme that consuming countries should reduce dependency on Middle East oil may prove unrealistic, costly and counter productive. The authors argue that a more useful approach is to assess under which circumstances the region would cease to act (willing or unwillingly) as a reliable supplier, what are the chances of these events occurring, and in case of a disruption, how big the impact is likely to be on oil supplies and productive capacity. This approach would help refocus the debate regarding Middle East supplies by reconsidering certain concerns that seem to shape energy security policies. On the other hand, one can identify some factors that may have a long lasting impact on energy security but which do not receive the appropriate attention.
Download Paper [pdf, 251 KB]
Energy Supply Security: Demands on Politics as Consequence of Changed Market Constellations
By: German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Dr. Friedemann Müller
Sep 2007
Script of a speech by Dr. Friedemann Müller, Researcher at German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), delivered on the International Conference "Global Security in the 21st Century – Perspectives from China and Europe" in Beijing.
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Oil Market Challenges in the Decades to Come - A Consumer's Perspective
By: German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Enno Harks
Aug 2006
This paper gives an overview of the current situation of the oil market and explains its recent development. It provides an outlook on the future use of oil and the role it will play in coming decades. Beside a description, the text points out the problems that the market possesses for economies nowadays and gives recommendations on how the market should be structured to avoid such problems and to secure energy supply to thereby prevent destabilization of economies.
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The Myth of the Iranian Oil Weapon
By: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Aug 2007
Although Iran has many tools for deterrence or retaliation at its disposal, contrary to what many analysts believe, the oil weapon is not one of them. There are serious costs and risks associated with the use of the oil weapon. It is not always effective; it is indiscriminate; and it cannot be sustained for a long period of time. It is certainly not one of Iran’s strongest tools with which to confront the US.
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Papers Session 4: Is Peaceful Risk Management possible? Options for Multilateral Regulation
Security Council Holds First-Ever Debate on Impact of Climate Change on Peace and Security
UN Security Council - SC/9000
April 17, 2007
With scientists predicting that land and water resources will gradually become more scarce in the coming years, and that global warming may irreversibly alter the face of the planet, the United Nations Security Council today held its first-ever debate on the impact of climate change on security, as some delegates raised doubts over whether the Council was the proper forum to discuss the issue.
The day-long meeting, called by the United Kingdom, aimed to examine the relationship between energy, security and climate, and featured interventions from more than 50 delegations, representing imperilled island nations and industrialized greenhouse gas emitters alike. While some speakers praised the initiative, there were reservations from developing countries, which saw climate change as a socio-economic development issue to be dealt with by the more widely representative General Assembly. Many delegations also called for the United Nations to urgently consider convening a global summit on the issue.
Download Paper
UK Background Paper
Background Paper for the UN Security Council - SC/9000, 17 April 2007
Major changes to world's physical landmass during this century may lead to border & maritime disputes, submergence of entire small island states and dramatically receding coastlines. 200.000.000 people could be displaced by 2050 as large parts of the world become uninhabitable because of rising sea levels. Conflicts over energy resources & security of supply will arise.
http://unfccc.int/files/application/pdf/ukpaper_securitycouncil.pdf
Download Paper [pdf, 16 KB]
Vienna Summit 2006 Declaration
EU- and US-leaders met in Vienna to respond to the concerns of citizens for peace, security, stability and prosperity in an increasingly globalised world. Commission President José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Council and Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel and US President George W. met to discuss foreign policy co-operation, energy security, economy and trade, and other global challenges. On energy, leaders decided to step up EU-US cooperation to a strategic level and to promote a set of principles for responsible energy policies worldwide. Iran, the Middle East and the promotion of democracy are dominated the foreign policy agenda.
Download Paper [pdf, 56 KB]
How Secure are Middle East Oil Supplies?
By: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Sep 2007
In light of the Middle East's record as a reliable supplier, a simple return to the old theme that consuming countries should reduce dependency on Middle East oil may prove unrealistic, costly and counter productive. The authors argue that a more useful approach is to assess under which circumstances the region would cease to act (willing or unwillingly) as a reliable supplier, what are the chances of these events occurring, and in case of a disruption, how big the impact is likely to be on oil supplies and productive capacity. This approach would help refocus the debate regarding Middle East supplies by reconsidering certain concerns that seem to shape energy security policies. On the other hand, one can identify some factors that may have a long lasting impact on energy security but which do not receive the appropriate attention.
Download Paper [pdf, 251 KB]
An External Policy to Serve Europe’s Energy Interests
By: EU-Commission and the Secretary-General/High Representative
May 2006
Paper from Commission/SG/HR for the European Council
The EU and the world need reliable, affordable and sustainable flows of energy. This is a key element for economic development and the achievement of the Lisbon goals. There is an obvious link between energy security, sustainability and competitiveness. This paper considers how EU external relations, including CFSP, can be used more effectively to pursue the common objective of securing reliable flows of affordable and environmentally sustainable energy.
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The Ruler of the Pipeline
By: GMF, Jörg Himmelreich
March 2007
It used to be tanks and missiles but now it is oil and gas that matter. The Kremlin is deliberately using its energy resources and the dependency of the importing countries as a tool of a new great power policy. The EU can no longer allow itself to be treated in this manner. It should use its power of demand to create a new foundation for future cooperation.
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Toward a New Energy Realpolitik
The future of global energy governance is a key security issue
By: Sascha Müller-Kraenner
2007
Today’s political leaders face the intertwined challenges of energy security, climate change, and nuclear proliferation. Yet traditional conceptions of energy security—like geopolitical deals with energy suppliers—still dominate the debate. We need a modern vision of the world’s energy future that would include a global energy governance structure to address energy market imbalances and the phasing out of nuclear power.
Download Paper [pdf, 672 KB]
Transnational Cross-Ownership Schemes in Energy Sectors
By: EastWest Institute, Enno Harks
Aug 2006
Deepening the integration between producing and consuming nations will ultimately blur the line of separation and cross-link international / energy interests. One important means of attaining this goal could be the installation of transnational cross-ownership schemes. Interlinking company interests on both sides not only deepens the integration of the two markets, but it especially reduces the risk of energy supply disruptions due to one-sided political interests and/or a supply shortfall due to the lack of needed investments. A discussion of the issues at hand in the realization of such schemes is presented here.
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Deepening the Integration Between Energy Producing and Consuming Nations
By: EastWest Institute, Enno Harks
Jan 2006
Report of the Task Force "Energy Security and Cooperation"
The Task Force’s attention was concentrated on the search for mutually beneficial regime for development of global energy resources under the basic principle of permanent search for the balance of interest among energy producing and consuming nations, which would, on one hand, recognize sovereign rights of energy producing countries to use the benefits of their natural resource potential to resolve the challenges of national development, and, on the other hand, ensure that those resources are developed and delivered to global energy markets under a fair prices to support global economic growth and sustainable development.
Download Paper [pdf, 381 KB]
The Right to Development in a Climate Constrained World
By: Heinrich Böll Foundation
Nov 2007
The paper points out that if an emergency program is to have any hope of being embraced, it must take care that it does not threaten to lock in today’s vast disparities of wealth and income. Just the contrary: It must drive down emissions, globally, even while the lives of the poor are improving and ambitious development goals are being met and surpassed. To this end, it must slash the emissions of the already wealthy and, at the same time, prevent the unbounded emissions growth of those rising out of poverty. And it must do so without stifling their development aspirations.
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Papers Dinner Session – What Role for International Institutions in Confronting Security Threats Arising out of Climate Change and Competition for Scarce Energy Resources?
Security Council Holds First-Ever Debate on Impact of Climate Change on Peace and Security
UN Security Council - SC/9000
April 17, 2007
With scientists predicting that land and water resources will gradually become more scarce in the coming years, and that global warming may irreversibly alter the face of the planet, the United Nations Security Council today held its first-ever debate on the impact of climate change on security, as some delegates raised doubts over whether the Council was the proper forum to discuss the issue.
The day-long meeting, called by the United Kingdom, aimed to examine the relationship between energy, security and climate, and featured interventions from more than 50 delegations, representing imperilled island nations and industrialized greenhouse gas emitters alike. While some speakers praised the initiative, there were reservations from developing countries, which saw climate change as a socio-economic development issue to be dealt with by the more widely representative General Assembly. Many delegations also called for the United Nations to urgently consider convening a global summit on the issue.
Download Paper
UK Background Paper
Background Paper for the UN Security Council - SC/9000, 17 April 2007
Major changes to world's physical landmass during this century may lead to border & maritime disputes, submergence of entire small island states and dramatically receding coastlines. 200.000.000 people could be displaced by 2050 as large parts of the world become uninhabitable because of rising sea levels. Conflicts over energy resources & security of supply will arise.
http://unfccc.int/files/application/pdf/ukpaper_securitycouncil.pdf
Download Paper [pdf, 16 KB]
Vienna Summit 2006 Declaration
EU- and US-leaders met in Vienna to respond to the concerns of citizens for peace, security, stability and prosperity in an increasingly globalised world. Commission President José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Council and Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel and US President George W. met to discuss foreign policy co-operation, energy security, economy and trade, and other global challenges. On energy, leaders decided to step up EU-US cooperation to a strategic level and to promote a set of principles for responsible energy policies worldwide. Iran, the Middle East and the promotion of democracy are dominated the foreign policy agenda.
Download Paper [pdf, 56 KB]
IEA Response System for Oil Supply Emergencies
By: International Energy Agency
2007
Emergency response to oil supply disruptions has remained a core mission of the International Energy Agency since its founding in 1974. This information pamphlet explains the decisionmaking process leading to an IEA collective action, the measures available – focusing on stockdraw – and finally, the historical background of major oil supply disruptions and the IEA response to them. It also demonstrates the continuing need for emergency preparedness, including the growing importance of engaging key transition and emerging economies in dialogue about energy security.
Download Paper [pdf, 4.08 MB]
An External Policy to Serve Europe’s Energy Interests
By: EU-Commission and the Secretary-General/High Representative
May 2006
Paper from Commission/SG/HR for the European Council
The EU and the world need reliable, affordable and sustainable flows of energy. This is a key element for economic development and the achievement of the Lisbon goals. There is an obvious link between energy security, sustainability and competitiveness. This paper considers how EU external relations, including CFSP, can be used more effectively to pursue the common objective of securing reliable flows of affordable and environmentally sustainable energy.
Download Paper [pdf, 116 KB]
Toward a New Energy Realpolitik
The future of global energy governance is a key security issue
By: Sascha Müller-Kraenner
2007
Today’s political leaders face the intertwined challenges of energy security, climate change, and nuclear proliferation. Yet traditional conceptions of energy security—like geopolitical deals with energy suppliers—still dominate the debate. We need a modern vision of the world’s energy future that would include a global energy governance structure to address energy market imbalances and the phasing out of nuclear power.
Download Paper [pdf, 672 KB]
Deepening the Integration Between Energy Producing and Consuming Nations
By: EastWest Institute, Enno Harks
Jan 2006
Report of the Task Force "Energy Security and Cooperation"
The Task Force’s attention was concentrated on the search for mutually beneficial regime for development of global energy resources under the basic principle of permanent search for the balance of interest among energy producing and consuming nations, which would, on one hand, recognize sovereign rights of energy producing countries to use the benefits of their natural resource potential to resolve the challenges of national development, and, on the other hand, ensure that those resources are developed and delivered to global energy markets under a fair prices to support global economic growth and sustainable development.
Download Paper [pdf, 381 KB]
